Ana Rosa Gonzalez Martinez is a PhD student of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Spain. She is carrying out research at the Department of Land Economy of the University of Cambridge. She attended the 16th Conference of the Research Network on The State of Economics after the Crisis, October 26-27, 2012, in Berlin, and presented a paper 'Modelling the Housing Market in OECD Countries'. In her paper she argued that the burst of housing bubbles in a number of developed countries motivates the study of the factors that determine housing prices. This study emphasises those elements which are related to monetary and fiscal policies. The model proposed for the purpose of this contribution also accounts for the impact of demographics and the external sector in order to generalise a nationwide housing model, which explains the development of real housing prices. Following the construction of a relevant theoretical model, I proceed to test it in the case of 18 OECD economies over the period 1970-2011. This theoretical proposition is estimated in each country by means of cointegration and error-correction techniques in order to analyse the different characteristics of the housing market in each country under investigation; and also to account for the short- and the long-run relationships through the error-correction formulation. The results of this analysis reveal how the main determinant of housing prices is income. This study also emphasises the role of fiscal policy which has not been acknowledged in the past. However, manipulation of interest rates in order to curb demand for housing is not found to be one of the most important variables that monetary authorities should utilise.
She had previously attended the 9th International Conference Developments in Economic Theory and Policy, June 28-29, 2012, in Bilbao, Spain, and presented a paper Investment, Financial Markets and Uncertainty. The paper provides a theoretical analysis of the accumulation process, which accounts for developments in the financial markets over the recent past. Specifically, this approach is focused on the presence of correlations between physical and financial investment, and how the latter could affect the former. In order to achieve this objective, two assets are considered: equities and bonds. This choice allows us to account for two extreme alternative possibilities: taking-risk in the short-run with unknown profits, or undertaking a commitment to the long-run with known yields. The paper also accounts for the influence of the cost of external finance and the impact of financial uncertainty as proxied by the interest rate in the former case and the exchange rate in the latter case, thereby utilising the Keynesian notion of conventions in the determination of investment. The model thus formulated is subsequently estimated by applying panel data techniques in a sample of 14 OECD countries from 1970 to 2010. The empirical results provide evidence, which validates the theoretical framework advanced in the first part of the study.
She had also attended the conference From crisis to growth? The challenge of imbalances, debt, and limited resources, which took place in Berlin at the end of October 2011, and was organized by the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM) and the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) in the Hans Böckler Foundation. The objective of this conference was that of promoting the development of post-Keynesian economics, as it was shown in the introductory workshop celebrated before participants´ presentations. At the conference, she delivered a paper, Modelling accumulation: An empirical application of the accelerator principle, which proposes a theoretical explanation of capital accumulation which extends the normal investment function, where the rate of capacity utilization and the profit share are considered the main determinants of the analyzed phenomenon. The main reason to extend this model is to account for some important elements, which influence investment decisions. For example, the impact of monetary elements, like the long-term interest rate, the effect of the stock exchange market, and the presence of uncertainty, which is approximated by the exchange rate and oil prices. Moreover, it is also important to account fully for uncertainty. These hypotheses are tested against a sample, which collects data over the period 1970-2010 for 12 OECD economies. The econometric parameters of the dynamic functions, which are empirically estimated, support the testable hypothesis and reinforce the validity of this particular Kaleckian approach.